How the Hungarian Forint Strength Index Works

The index compares each of six exchange rates with its level on 4 January 1999 and combines them as a weighted geometric average, scaled so that day equals 100. The currencies carry fixed weights - EUR 50%, USD 20%, CHF 10%, GBP 10%, PLN 5%, CZK 5% - and every rate comes from the European Central Bank. Nothing below is estimated or forecast.

Correction, 24 October 2026: this page gave the weights as EUR 50%, USD 20%, CHF 10%, GBP 10%, PLN 5% and CZK 5%, but the calculation I wrote added the six exchange rates in their own units. On the anchor date a forint bought about 0.0040 euro but 0.14 koruna, so the koruna carried about 60% of the index and the euro 17%. The index now compares each rate with its 4 January 1999 level and combines the six at the stated weights as a weighted geometric average, the method the US Dollar Index uses. Basket, weights, anchor date and ECB data are unchanged, and the whole series since 1999 has been recalculated. On 23 October the old formula gave 54.7 and the corrected one 64.3; the difference is the correction, not a market move. The old line never regained 100 after November 1999; the corrected one peaks at 114.4 on 18 July 2008. The old formula and a comparison by date are in the change log.

Overview

The Forint Index (FI) measures the overall strength of the Hungarian Forint (HUF) against a weighted basket of six major currencies. It provides a single number that captures whether the Forint is strengthening or weakening relative to its key trading partners and financial counterparts.

A value of 100 means the six exchange rates, taken together at their weights, stand where they did on 4 January 1999. Above 100 the Forint is stronger than on that date (fewer HUF per unit of foreign currency), below 100 weaker. Whether it is strengthening or weakening now is a separate question, answered by the change over time.

Reference Period (Baseline)

The HUF-Index uses a fixed anchor date: 4 January 1999, the first day of ECB reference rates. Every index value compares that day's six rates with the anchor-date rates, so a reading of 100 would mean the Forint sits exactly where it did on the anchor date. Current readings are below 100 because the Forint has weakened against all six basket currencies since 1999.

Note: the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) works the same way, fixed to a March 1973 base of 100.00. The percentage shown beside the index on the dashboard is the index's own change over the last 30 days.

Currency Basket & Weights

The index uses six currencies, weighted by their economic and financial importance to Hungary. The weights hold on every date: a currency's weight is its share of every move in the index.

• EUR - Euro50%
• USD - US Dollar20%
• CHF - Swiss Franc10%
• GBP - British Pound10%
• PLN - Polish Zloty5%
• CZK - Czech Koruna5%

Weight rationale: EUR reflects Hungary's dominant trade relationship with the Eurozone (~65% of total trade). USD captures global commodity pricing and reserve currency dynamics. CHF accounts for Switzerland's role as a financial counterpart and the historical significance of CHF-denominated mortgages in Hungary. GBP represents the UK's financial sector linkage. PLN and CZK provide regional Central European (CEE) peer comparison, reflecting Hungary's close economic ties with neighboring EU members.

Calculation Formula

Each exchange rate is divided by its value on the anchor date (4 January 1999), the six ratios are combined as a geometric average with the basket weights, and the result is multiplied by 100:

Because the weights apply to proportional moves, a 1% move in EUR/HUF moves the index by about 0.5% and a 1% move in USD/HUF by about 0.2%, on any date. If all six rates move by 1%, the index moves by exactly 1%. How many units of a currency a forint buys - 0.0027 euro or 0.066 koruna - makes no difference.

Note: this is the weighted geometric average used by the U.S. Dollar Index and by the ECB's and BIS's effective exchange rate indices. Until 24 October 2026 the site added the raw exchange rates instead; see the change log.

What does a given index reading mean?

Because the anchor is 4 January 1999 and the Forint has weakened substantially since then, the index sits well below 100; it was last at 100 or above in October 2009. The absolute number is therefore not a score out of 100, and a reading below 100 is not a warning signal - it is a statement about 1999.

A reading of 64 means that, averaged at these weights, a forint buys roughly 64% of the foreign currency it bought on the anchor date - the Forint has lost about a third of its 1999 value against these six currencies combined. What matters day to day is the change: a move from 64.0 to 64.6 is a 0.9% strengthening, and it is that direction and pace, not the level, that the 30-day change beside the index and the chart are built to show.

Comparing across ranges is safe precisely because the anchor never moves. The value plotted for any given date is the same whether you are viewing the 1-month or the maximum range, so trends can be read across time spans without recalibration.

Color Coding

All visual indicators follow a Forint-first perspective:

• Blue (+) - The Forint has strengthened
• Orange (0) - The Forint is stable
• Red (−) - The Forint has weakened

Data Sources

Exchange Rates: Sourced from the European Central Bank (ECB) via the Frankfurter API. Rates are updated daily on ECB business days.

Economic Indicators: Sourced from Eurostat, the official statistical office of the European Union. Indicators include GDP growth, inflation (HICP), unemployment rate, 10-year government bond yields, industrial production, government debt, and current account balance.

MNB Base Rate: The Hungarian National Bank (MNB) base rate schedule and rate history are maintained based on official MNB announcements.

Economic Factors

The Forint Strength Factors section analyzes 8 key macroeconomic indicators to determine overall pressure on the Hungarian Forint. Each indicator is classified as:

• ▲ Bullish - Supports a stronger Forint
• ▬ Neutral - Limited impact on Forint direction
• ▼ Bearish - Suggests weakening pressure on Forint

The overall sentiment bar aggregates these signals to provide a composite view of fundamental pressure on the currency.

Classification is based on fixed threshold rules applied to each indicator's latest value. This approach prioritizes simplicity and consistency. It does not account for market expectations, consensus forecasts, or inter-indicator correlations.

Limitations & Disclaimer

This index is provided for informational and educational purposes only. Please be aware of the following limitations:

• Simplified model - The index uses a rule-based approach with fixed weights and thresholds. It does not incorporate market positioning, order flow, or forward-looking expectations.
• Distant anchor - the 1999 base lies more than two decades back, so the absolute level mostly reflects accumulated long-run drift rather than current conditions. Read the direction and pace of change, not the level.
• Equal indicator weighting - All economic factors are given equal importance in the sentiment analysis. In practice, GDP and inflation may have different impacts on currency movements than trade balance or government debt.
• Delayed data - ECB exchange rates are published once per business day. Eurostat economic indicators may lag by weeks or months depending on the release schedule.
• Not financial advice - This tool does not constitute investment advice. Currency markets are influenced by many unpredictable factors. Please consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.

Change log

24 October 2026 - formula corrected. Until this date the index was FI = 100 × Σ(w_i × R_i) / 0.0116405: the raw rates (foreign currency per HUF) multiplied by the basket weights and added up, with 0.0116405 the same sum on 4 January 1999. Because the rates come in different units, the weights did not hold: on the anchor date the koruna made up 60% of that sum and the euro 17%, on 23 October 2026 52% and 21%. I computed the 30-day change beside the index separately, at the stated weights, so the two sometimes pointed different ways (on 22 days in the year to October 2026). I recalculated the whole series with the current formula. Values on selected dates: