EUR/HUF closed at 363.98 on 3 August. The July report used 361.88, the 24 July fixing, as its reference, so the pair is 0.6% higher. Read on its own that says the forint gave up a little more ground. Read against the dollar it says the opposite: USD/HUF went from 318.08 to 315.54 over the same stretch.
August comes down to three dates. July inflation on the 7th, the MNB rate decision on the 25th, the RRF milestone deadline on the 31st. None of them has happened yet, and they are chained: the first supplies the material for the second.
What has moved since the July report
| Date | EUR/HUF | USD/HUF | EUR/USD |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24 July | 361.88 | 318.08 | 1.1377 |
| 3 August | 363.98 | 315.54 | 1.1535 |
| Change | +0.58% | -0.80% | +1.39% |
The forint is 0.6% weaker against the euro and 0.8% stronger against the dollar. The euro gained 1.4% on the dollar in between. Three rows telling one story.
The move came from the euro, not the forint
This only became visible after pulling the three pairs from the ECB series and putting them side by side. Looking at EUR/HUF alone, the obvious reading was another leg of the retracement. The dollar cross said the forint had strengthened.
That forces a correction to the July report. It listed oil and the dollar together as external pressure, with dollar strength as one leg of the weakening. The dollar has since gone the other way, EUR/USD from 1.1377 to 1.1535, and EUR/HUF did not follow it down. Whatever is holding the pair around 364, a strong dollar is not it.
Year to date the picture is unchanged. Against 31 December the forint is 7.3% stronger versus the zloty, 5.6% versus the Swiss franc, 5.5% versus the euro, 5.4% versus the koruna, 3.7% versus the dollar and 3.7% versus sterling. Positive against all six currencies in this site's basket, the same direction the July report described.
The strongest print of the year is still 349.53 on 16 June. The pair now sits 4.1% above that low.
7 August: the input arrives before the decision
The HCSO publishes July consumer prices on 7 August. June came out on 7 July at 1.7%, with core inflation unchanged at 2.0%.
What makes this month legible is a sentence in the MNB's 21 July statement. The Council said it sees room to cut further throughout the summer while maintaining a positive real interest rate, and that the decision on continuing would be made on the basis of the September Inflation Report.
So an August cut is already half-announced. The 7 August print is close to the only thing that could disturb it, which is why the ordering matters more than either date on its own.
25 August: the rate decision
The 21 July meeting cut 25 basis points to a 5.75% base rate, effective from the 22nd, with the corridor moving alongside it: 4.75% on the overnight deposit rate, 6.75% on overnight lending.
Against 1.7% inflation, that leaves roughly four percentage points of real rate. By the MNB's own framing there is still room. From the currency's side, that room shrinking is the carry compressing, which is the mechanism the July report set out and which is still running.
The Council also meets on 4 August, but that is not a policy meeting and no rate is set there. Twelve policy meetings are scheduled this year; August's is the 25th.
31 August: the deadline
The RRF milestone deadline falls on the 31st. The July report called it the single largest scheduled event risk on the calendar, and it is now four weeks out.
The asymmetry is the point. Compliance is priced; failure is not. Clearing the deadline should pass quietly, missing it should not. What the 27 milestones actually require, and why passing the legislation did not settle them, is covered in a separate piece.
The euro amounts are deliberately not restated here. I went back to re-verify the figures the July report used and the Council press release would not load, so rather than copy an unchecked number across they are left out.
Where the July scenarios stand
| Scenario | Year-end EUR/HUF | Probability | Status today |
|---|---|---|---|
| A. Renewed strength | 345–355 | 20% | Out. The pair has not traded here since 16 June |
| B. Range-bound | 355–365 | 35% | Live. At 363.98, about a point below the top |
| C. Mild weakness | 365–378 | 30% | Directly above, less than 1% away |
| D. Sharp move | Above 378 | 15% | Distant. Nothing near it since 396.38 on 9 March |
The probabilities are unchanged. Nothing in the last ten days justifies moving them: the only movement was 0.6% on EUR/HUF, and if that came from the euro side it is not evidence about the forint.
The position within B has changed, though. In July the pair sat mid-range at 361.88; at 363.98 it sits at the top. Less than 1% separates it from C, and one more cut inside August could close that distance without anything else happening.
What to watch
- 7 August - July inflation. Near 1.7% and the 25th is close to settled; an upside surprise makes the MNB's summer-easing language the thing to read
- 25 August - the base rate and the wording. How the statement frames the period after September matters more than the 25 basis points
- 31 August - the milestones, and whether the Commission's language is met or broadly met
- EUR/HUF 365 - the boundary between B and C. Crossing it is the 30% branch beginning to realise
- The euro and the dollar - EUR/HUF alone is not enough. This month made that concrete
I also looked for a scheduled rating review in August and could not confirm a date, so it is not on the list.
How to read this
The probabilities above are a judgement, not a model output. The reasoning is written out so it can be argued with.
The July report's dollar claim not surviving ten days is a fair illustration of what this document is. It is not an attempt to call the level. It is a set of conditions to check against events as they arrive. The HUF Strength Index this site tracks works the same way: a record of what exchange rates have already done, not a view on what comes next. The methodology page sets out how it is built.
Exchange rates here are ECB reference rates; policy rates and inflation come from the MNB's 21 July statement and HCSO releases. Nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any currency.