Forint outlook 2027–2028: EUR/HUF from 3 months to 2 years

The base case in this forint outlook has EUR/HUF drifting from 366.73 now to about 372 in three months, 378 in a year and 385 in two years. That is roughly what the gap between Hungarian and euro-area policy rates already implies. The risk sits at the edges, and the edges are not symmetric. The road to a stronger forint is narrow and opens slowly; the road to a weaker one is wide and can open all at once.

Levels are ECB reference rates for 23 October. USD/HUF, 327.64, is a cross rate built from the ECB fixings. The August report's year-end bands, with updated probabilities, are in the October report.

What moves EUR/HUF over different horizons

I split the drivers into three layers. Over days and weeks it is flows and sentiment, over months policy and the cycle, over years structure. The same driver can gain or lose weight as the horizon lengthens.

The weights are judgement. Gas shows up in two rows: this winter it is a sentiment variable, a year from now a structural one. Under EU Regulation 2026/261, Russian LNG imports end by the end of 2026 and pipeline gas by autumn 2027, November 2027 at the latest. The twelve-month horizon ends right there.

EUR/USD sits in the first row for a reason. Year to date the forint is 4.78% stronger against the euro and 0.04% stronger against the dollar, which is to say flat. Hence the USD/HUF column in every table below.

EUR/HUF in three months: January 2027

Horizon: around 24 January 2027.

The ranges are my judgement of where the pair could stand on the last day of the period. They are not probability intervals, and they say nothing about the high or the low along the way. The same goes for the three tables that follow.

Of the four horizons, this one has the most crowded calendar:

• End of October: Fed (27–28 October) and ECB (29 October) decisions; the 2027 budget bill is due in parliament, with no vote date set
• 10 November: October inflation, a week before the MNB rate decision on the 17th
• 20 November Moody's, 27 November S&P, 4 December Fitch: all three carry negative outlooks; the dates are as reported in the press
• 15 December: MNB decision, alongside the December Inflation Report
• 31 December: the deadline for RRF payments

I read the MNB's 20 October statement next to September's, and one sentence is new. It says economic-policy measures and the market's reception of them affect the room for monetary policy. The word budget does not appear. Still, the economic-policy measure that will meet the market inside three months is the 2027 budget. That reading is mine.

B needs most of that calendar to pass cleanly: a budget the market believes and no further outlook cuts. The RRF money would also have to arrive before year-end. Scope already moved its outlook to positive on 9 October. ING's 12 October note named the 2027 budget, the medium-term consolidation plan and formal ERM II talks as credibility triggers. If those land, the bank sees EUR/HUF reaching 350–355 within a month and the MNB resuming cuts in December.

C is mostly about gas. EU storage was 74.6% full on 22 October against a five-year average of about 86% (Oilprice.com, citing Gas Infrastructure Europe data). The December TTF contract settled at €93.80. A winter TTF above €110–120 together with a VIX above 25 is the C configuration. Hungary's one-year US sanctions waiver on Russian oil and gas also expires in November, and the government is seeking an extension (Reuters, 24 September).

The ten-year government bond yield, the ÁKK benchmark, went from 5.31% on 16 October to 5.61% on the 22nd, the week the budget figures came out. Four trading days are too few to read a verdict into.

EUR/HUF in six months: April 2027

Horizon: around 24 April 2027.

By April the winter is over. What thins instead is the rate cushion.

The MNB's September Inflation Report has inflation averaging 3.1% in 2027 and running slightly above 3% until mid-2027. September inflation was 1.6%, so even with the base rate left at 5.50% the real rate shrinks on its own. On the other side the ECB may hike: the MNB's own statement notes that market pricing allows for further increases by the ECB, the Fed and the Bank of Japan.

Two numbers carry this horizon. The gap between the MNB base rate and the ECB deposit rate is 3.00 percentage points; 2.5 or more keeps A or B in play, below 1.5 tilts toward C. Core inflation was 1.9% in September; at or below 2.5% supports B, above 3.5–4% points to C. If ING's end-2026 forecasts hold (MNB 5.25%, ECB deposit rate 2.75%), the gap would be exactly 2.50 points, right on the line.

17 November, 15 December, 16 February, 23 March: four MNB policy meetings fall inside these six months. From 2027 there are eight a year.

EUR/HUF in one year: October 2027

Horizon: around 24 October 2027.

By then the budget's results will be in. The government puts the 2026 deficit at 7.5% of GDP and targets 4.9% for 2027. The MNB's September report has 6.9% and 5.9%, but it came out before the 2027 plan and said itself that the government's plans could materially change its fiscal and macroeconomic forecasts. So the gap in the size of the cut, 2.6 points for the government against 1.0 for the MNB, is not yet the central bank's verdict on the plan.

According to 444 (20 October), the government's 2027 package has spending cuts of HUF 1,465bn, or 1.5% of GDP, and net revenue gains of HUF 665bn. Passing it is no hurdle. Tisza has a two-thirds majority, and the revised 2026 budget went through 134–48 on 19 October, as 444 reported. B's probability rises from 25% to 30% at this horizon because a year is about how long it takes for a deficit near target to show up in the data.

The lines: a 2027 deficit outlook at or below 4.5% for B, above 6% for C. Public debt was 75.6% of GDP in the second quarter of 2026; above 80% is C territory.

Structure starts to count here. The current account showed a €244.6m deficit in Q2 2026. The MNB put it down to the goods deficit and lower EU transfers, with the energy balance alone worse by about €600m. Over four quarters the account is still in surplus, at 1.0% of GDP. The MNB projects 0.3% for 2027; above +1% supports B, below −1% points to C.

In C, USD/HUF and EUR/HUF meet at 440. The scenario puts EUR/USD at parity.

EUR/HUF in two years: October 2028

At two years, flows hardly matter. From 1 January 2028 the MNB's inflation target drops from 3% to 2.5%, with the ±1 point tolerance band unchanged. The MNB projects 2028 inflation at 2.6%, core at 2.8%, growth at 2.8%, a deficit of 5.2% and a current-account surplus of 0.6% of GDP. The government's euro-adoption goal, as cited by Scope, is 2030.

B is those numbers broadly coming true. C is a deficit stuck above 6%, debt over 80% and a current account below −2% of GDP. The C range, 410–560, is 150 forints wide. I have no basis for drawing it narrower two years out.

Why is the weak-forint side wider?

In every table C is wider and further away than B. At one year, B's centre of 340 is 26.73 below spot and C's 440 is 73.27 above it, close to three times the distance.

The reason is speed. High carry pays slowly: the 3.00-point gap is worth about 11 forints a year at today's level, since the twelve-month approximation of 377.46 sits 10.73 above spot. A carry unwind, a jump in energy import costs and a loss of policy credibility can arrive together.

The last three months hide this. I pulled the ECB series and counted days against the bands from the August report. Of the 60 fixings since 3 August, 39 fell in 355–365 and 21 in 365–378, none outside. 21 October fixed at exactly 365.00 and had to go one way or the other; I counted it in C. The whole stretch spanned 360.18 to 369.18, nine forints. Over the past year the range was 349.53 (16 June) to 396.38 (9 March).

Volatility says the same. Realised volatility, the sample standard deviation of daily log returns times √252, is 5.49% over 30 days and 8.25% over a year. At the 30-day figure one sigma is ±10.1 forints at three months, ±14.2 at six, ±20.1 at twelve and ±28.5 at two years; at the one-year figure, twelve months is ±30.3. The ranges in the tables are wider than that. A's twelve-month range of 345–415 already is.

How does the base case compare with forwards, ING and PPP?

The fourth column is a policy-rate approximation, not a market forward. It is spot (366.73) multiplied by (1 + 5.50% × t) / (1 + 2.50% × t), using the MNB base rate and the ECB deposit rate; I recomputed it and the values match. Market forwards are priced off interbank swap rates and will differ.

A stays within three forints of the approximation at every horizon. The base case says the forint gives back in the exchange rate roughly what it earns from the rate gap. Weighting the scenarios changes that: the probability-weighted figure at one year is 385.20, about eight forints weaker than the approximation. Those eight forints are the skew in price terms.

ING's numbers are bank forecasts. They sit on the strong side of my base at every horizon they cover: closer to B at three months, roughly halfway between A and B at six and twelve. On 23 October ING still saw energy and risk-off weighing on the forint in the short term, while expecting EUR/HUF to be capped at 368–370. My three-month base is above that, at 372. What separates the two views is which arrives first, budget credibility or the winter gas bill.

The PPP check uses Hungarian inflation of 3%, the current MNB target (the MNB forecasts 3.1% for 2027), and euro-area inflation of 2.5%, the ECB staff projection for 2027. Over two years that gives 366.73 × (1.03 / 1.025)² = 370.32. With the ECB's 2% target instead, 373.96. Relative prices alone point to roughly 370–374 in two years. The 385 base adds 11–15 forints on top, and that is the fiscal and external risk premium.

Which path to 2028?

The quiet path is A at every horizon: 372, 374, 378, 385, nearly on top of the policy-rate approximation. Plenty of news, and the rate moves only by what the carry implies.

In the winter shock that fades, EUR/HUF jumps to C, around 400, at three months and returns to A somewhere between six and twelve months. The gas futures curve already has this shape: on 23 October the December 2026 contract settled at 93.80, April 2027 at 79.01 and calendar 2027 at 76.31. If storage gets through the winter, this is the path. If not, C does not end at three months.

The slow slide stays in A for six months and moves to C at one and two years (440, 480). The winter passes; then the 2027 deficit ends above 6%, debt heads for 80%, and one of the three agencies on negative outlook cuts. The end of Russian pipeline gas lands in the same months.

Which indicators to check each month

Three readings are inside their B thresholds today: core inflation, the rate gap and the German PMI. The current account sits exactly on its line over four quarters, and the MNB expects it to slip to zero this year. Nothing is on the C side yet. The closest call is the deficit. The line is drawn for 2027, and the MNB's 5.9% for that year is a tenth of a point under it; the government's 7.5% for this year is already above it. Gas is moving fastest: TTF is about €16 short of €110, having risen €51 since 1 July, when it stood at €42.78.

The German PMI is good only in manufacturing. The composite fell to 52.8, a two-month low, and manufacturers' input-cost inflation hit its highest since May, which goods producers linked to oil prices and dearer raw materials and components.

I looked for a public source on Hungary's five-year CDS that I could cite and did not find one, so it is not on the list.

Which assumptions are weakest

Two.

1. How long energy prices stay high. A rests on gas coming down roughly as the futures curve prices it. Since the Iran war began in late February, about 17% of Qatar's LNG export capacity has been damaged (press reports citing Reuters), Russian LNG stops at year-end, and Brent settled at $116.72 on 23 October.
2. Whether budget targets and EU approvals turn into actual deficit cuts, cash and productivity. The €4.2bn the EU Council released on 13 October restores commitments; the cash comes later. The final RRF payment request was filed by the end of September and is being assessed, with payments due by 31 December. The starting point is a first-half deficit that had already reached 6.2% of GDP.

How to read this

The probabilities and ranges above are a judgement. None of them comes from a model, and the reasoning is written out so it can be argued with. Use the tables as a conditions checklist: when a reading in the monthly table crosses a line, go back to the horizon tables.

The HUF Strength Index on this site records what exchange rates have already done. How it is built is on the methodology page, and the analysis page covers which indicators move the forint.

Exchange rates are ECB reference rates (USD/HUF is an ECB cross rate). Rates and inflation come from the MNB, the ECB, the HCSO and Eurostat; fiscal and balance-of-payments figures from the HCSO, the MNB and the government; the ten-year yield from the ÁKK benchmark; gas from ICE Endex settlements, VIX from Cboe, PMI from S&P Global. Items confirmed only in the press are attributed in the text. I am not a financial adviser, and nothing here is investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any currency.